Autonomous cars are no longer just the realm of science fiction. They are real and will be on roads sooner than you think. Cars with basic autonomous capability are in showrooms today, semi-autonomous cars are coming in 12-18 months, and completely autonomous cars are set to be available before the end of the decade. This is not a toy—the social and economic implications are enormous: Beyond the practical benefits, we estimate autonomous cars can contribute $1.3 trillion in annual savings to the US economy alone, with global savings estimated at over $5.6 trillion. There will undoubtedly be bumps in the road as well, including the issues of liability, infrastructure, and consumer acceptance. However, none of these issues appears insurmountable. The auto industry business model could be transformed—and the collateral impact to other sectors could be significant as well. Like the PC/smartphone industry today, we see the auto industry reorganized into dedicated "hardware" OEMs, "software / systems" OEMs/suppliers, and integrated "experience" creators. Selling content to the occupants of the car (who now have nothing else to do) could be a significant new revenue stream. We believe early leaders in the space have a critical head start including Audi, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Nissan among auto OEMs, Delphi, Continental, Autoliv and TRW among suppliers and tech players like Google, IBM and Cisco. Non-auto industries with high stakes in this market include telecom services, software, media, freight transportation, semiconductors and insurance.
Smart Mobility Community for Standards and Practices
